Predicted 5.6 million US drive failures in 2007
The 2007 disk drive failures calculation is based upon:
• IDC estimated US PC shipments for the last 3 years (2004 – 2006) at 188.3M units (IDC Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker, December 2006),
http://reports.idctracker.org/webdownlo ... elease.pdf
• Using a disk failure rate 3% (the midpoint of a 2% – 4% field replacement rate cited in the Carnegie Mellon study (Bianca Schroeder Garth A. Gibson, Computer Science Department, Carnegie Mellon University – presented In FAST'07: 5th USENIX Conference on File and Storage Technologies, San Jose, CA, Feb. 14-16, 2007.) -
http://www.usenix.org/events/fast07/tec ... index.html
• Multiplying IDC’s estimated three year US population of 188.3 million PC times the 3% failure rate = 5.6 millions drive failures predicted for 2007
P.S. - I heard that the US installed base is more like 250M, so the the number is actually higher, but for a press release I needed to go with something I could refer to.
Check out the Carnegie Mellon study, its gotten a lot of coverage.
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